I view asset investing, at the absolute highest level, as multiple different categories competing for capital flows. I view these as Fixed income, Equities, Real estate, CASH, and ALTERNATIVE INVESTMENTS. There is a finite amount of capital that is being allocated amongst these 5 classes, and their goal is to attract the highest amount of this capital. 

BTC/CRYPTO currently sits as niche assets within the alternative asset class. We’ve never had a true bull market as a relevant asset class that real capital actually looked to allocate to. We’ve always just been viewed as an highly speculative casino that only far out risk curve capital is interested in. Bitcoin finally has the chance to cross this chasm becoming an LINDY MAINSTREAM asset which can compete for real flow.

This is BITCOINs chance to become a mainstream asset class, not entirely cryptos. This will bring multitudes more eyes to the industry than before, that will come here to build and (scam). It will increase the chance drastically for the rest of the industry to reach mainstream, but it’s not guaranteed. 

Ok - look

To put simply

NICHE ASSETS = COMPETE FOR BREADCRUMBs of CAPITAL

MAINSTREAM ASSETS = LARGE AMOUNT ALLOCATED TO

The hsaka meme - YOU MUSTN’T BE AFRAID TO DREAM A LITTLE BIGGER, DARLING

It’s not guaranteed, nowhere close. But the next two years is the first actual shot that we’ve ever had of leaving nichedom behind. Buying bitcoin right now is basically a call option on us branching out and being globally recognized as the hardest money that’s ever existed, an asset that’s out of the governments purview, and whatever other absurd narratives we can craft. 

If BITCOIN stay niche forever, this industry prolly stays the same size/shrinks - nothing much really changes. Except becomes more and more irrelevant each year. Less capital will deploy here, industry will become less of a blackhole for raw talent.

If we do cross the chasm, which I think we will - we will rapidly expand, (favorable) regulation will be forced to occur, more capital than we’ve ever seen will be deployed into bitcoin. Every pump we’ve seen thus far will look like ants. We will be calling for 7 digits, not 6. 

What do I think - Ive never really bet on losers, nor do I enjoy losing money/wasting my time. Wouldn’t be here still if I didn’t think this industry didn’t pose the highest potential for growth + capital appreciation.  Think Bitcoin resonates with every age group + investor type w/ 3 large narratives

An hard asset with known supply/inflation

A bet on technology (digital money)

A check on government power

1,000,000

How about ETH? 

Bitcoin has found its own path, it’s time for ETH to lead crypto.

Think ETH only other crypto asset with chance to get an ETF in the next 4 years. ETH will prolly be asset managers bet on the entirety of the crypto space. Maybe will write something on this.

GL VITALIK. Lead us to greatness

Most come into crypto thinking they can make it by trading, spend a year realizing how difficult it is, blow up, then move on to finding other ways to earn their share of the pie. You quickly realize the only substantial way is to grow a network, build a reputation, then somehow monetize it.

When I first started tweeting - I made a relatively controversial post about ethics + profitability. You have an optimal point closer to being unethical, where you are able to maintain your network while still exploiting maximum lasting profitability. This lasting profitability is being able to continue to exploit your network without dire consequences. Whereas when you go too far to the right on being unethical, you destroy your network and any lasting profitability that came with it

.

There used to be a veil to this, where it wasn’t so black and white. But to be fair there was a veil to a lot of the things we do here to justify some sort of ethical ground. 

Crypto is an attention economy, and the Loudest influencer wins. You build an reputation over a cycle, then exploit it over the next, hoping you won’t need it by the third. This is where i was wrong about the curve - I used to think the optimal place was at the peak, but realized the entire curve is just theoretical and doesn’t work in practice. Everyones curve is different.

The actual best place to be is in the cool kids club, then you can be as far to the right as possible, without any repercussion (for now)

Launch an NFT collection and rug, Who cares. 

Shill Memecoins with less liquidity than your followers? 

Dumping on tweets?

Launching memecoins, shilling, while dumping?

As long as everyone in the group is making a buck, no one really cares. If it gets really bad and they do get ousted, they just throw someone under the bus. 

You dont have friends, you have people you make money with

Entire premise of this is that everyone has their edge, and they should just stick to it.

Most started with nothing - no skills, no proficiencies, no advantages. Everyone started on the same path by learning basic things - how to play the game, attacking, quest systems. Then you’d set out and create your own path, over time gaining an edge in what you spent hours leveling up; be it fletching, engineering, cooking. 

Ok - look

We all started our crypto journey relatively the same way. We heard about it through a friend, saw it on the tv, or were forced into by gambling on a sketchy online casino.  We all had no idea what we were doing, buying CARDANO or RIPPLE. Leverage trading and getting liq’d every day on BINANCE. Buying and selling NFTs - nuking them for the slightest bit of profit. Dming random people on DISCORD asking if they had any roles open.

We gained the base stat of general crypto knowledge. Then all set out and created our own paths. Traders, influencers, working a job, founding projects,  sybiling, or developing stuff.  We didn’t just spec into one of these, but most of us spec’d across them, maining in a few. 

You spec’d according to your skill set, and that is where you found your edge. Traders trade, developers develop - when a developer tries to trade it usually ends poorly, and you wouldn’t want a trader also trying to dedicate time to developing. Stay to your edge, acting outside is usually just gambling. Unless you are one of the talented few

The entire idea is - most of you have your talents, be it trading perpetuals, sleuthing onchain, working your way up the salary ladder, networking and finessing your way into private rounds as an influenza, developing the next biggest Ponzi, or spending time sybiling for 15% of the total airdrop allocation. Staying to your edge is investing, acting outside of it is just gambling.

An goated onchain trader blows up on perps while an cracked perps trader gets used as exit liquidity onchain.

An influenza gets his private seed deals to dump on his followers, while he gives it back trying to trade everywhere else. 

Maybe will go into detail on each of these in another post. Is really interesting where everyone’s edge is at, and how it differs from person to person.

Is like - NOURA is goated at tracking presale addresses and randomly sending in contributions hoping the devs let her in. 

While another friend trades perps and tracks OPEN INTEREST footsteps to see when large players are entering/exiting positions to feed off their slippage

While others have leveled up their salary skill set to figuring out the must lucrative company to work for and negotiating insane comps

This isnt a game of who can earn it the fastest. Is who can stay alive the longest.

Crypto just an MMORPG, find what you enjoy, spend time leveling it up, and stick to your edge. 

GL out there.